17th January - Weekly FX Update

Top Currency Pairs Monday 17th January 9:00 UTC GBP/USD: 1.36800 (Last Week: 1.35899) EUR/USD: 1.14292 (Last Week: 1.13347) GBP/EUR: 1.19694 (Last Week: 1.19888)

Market News

Pound Sterling The latest GDP figures for the UK last week showed that the economy has now recovered to pre-virus levels in November. GDP expanded by 0.9% between October and November, which was higher than expectations, meaning the economy is 0.7% larger than February 2020. The UK joins the US and just a few other countries amongst the major economies to achieve this feat so far. This is however expected to be a peak, as Omicron and fresh restrictions in December and January has likely slowed growth. Despite this, the 1.20 level for GBP/EUR is proving very stubborn for the Pound, and resistance was likely helped by some negative media circulating against the Prime Minister, leading to Boris Johnson evading resignation calls. This week will see inflation and employment figures for the UK and will give traders a clearer picture of the UK economy following on from the positive GDP figures last week.

Euro In the face of rising energy prices continuing to dampen the European economic outlook, the Euro held strong last week against the Pound as the GBP/EUR exchange rate attempted to break the 1.20 barrier. More importantly, the Euro finally made some gains on the Dollar as we saw the EUR/USD exchange rate push past the 1.14 level for the fist time since mid-November. Looking ahead, the European currency will look for a catalyst to hold the levels it has opened the week on. Data released will include inflation figures and trade balance, along with a speech from the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

U.S. Dollar The Pound continued it's winning streak over the Dollar last week which means the GBP/USD rate is now on average, 3.8% up from the monthly low back in December, when the rate fell to 1.31802. The Dollar extended its losses on Thursday, a day after US inflation jumped to 7% for December. Despite being in line with economists' forecasts, this was the biggest year-on-year increase since 1982 as wage pressures and a tightening labour market continue to pull inflation further away from the Fed's 2% target. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that they are prepared to do whatever is necessary to prevent red hot inflation from becoming "entrenched".

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