20th September - Weekly FX Update

GBP/EUR: Monday 9:00 UTC 20th September: 1.16798

Last week, the headlines were led by the UK economy's jobs report and inflation. Unemployment once again dropped to 4.6%, after adding 183,000 jobs in July, 5,000 more than expected. Inflation (Consumer Prices Index) was also higher than expected, coming in at 3.2%. This 1.2 percentage point increase is the largest ever recorded increase since records began in 1997. Eurozone inflation jumped up to 3%, and was not as significant an increase on the previous month as the UK experienced. Looking ahead, the Bank of England rate meeting will be on Thursday, and with the latest data released, it will certainly pressure the dovish interest rate expectations, although they still seem to remain firm on inflation being transitory.

GBP/USD: Monday 9:00 UTC 20th September: 1.36757

GBP/USD briefly broke 1.39 on Tuesday, which was down to a combination of Dollar weakness and strong UK labour figures. Headlining the week, UK inflation (Consumer Prices Index) came in at 3.2%, which was the highest monthly increase ever recorded. This had little effect on the exchange rate which is a sign that the currency pair is consolidating. The US Dollar is also benefitting from the Evergrande situation currently in China, with the Asian-Pacific stocks falling, there is increased confidence in the US as a safe haven. Looking ahead, the attention will be on both the Fed and Bank of England's monetary policy decision. Volatility will pick up for GBP/USD and an explosive move in price could occur should there be any drastic changes from either side.

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