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6th December - Weekly FX Update

Top Currency Pairs Monday 6th December 9:00 UTC GBP/USD: 1.32562 (Last week: 1.33356) EUR/USD: 1.12915 (Last week: 1.12745) GBP/EUR: 1.17400 (Last week: 1.18281)


Market News

Pound Sterling Goldman Sachs are expecting a rate rise this December, despite many traders and analysts pulling back their expectations over the last week after the new Omicron variant and some cautious BoE comments, believing that the Bank will delay their response until they have more information on the new strain. Goldman Sachs analysts however have said the UK economy will hold up relatively well during this fourth wave given its high vaccine take-up and booster programme, meaning a 15 basis points rate hike in December is "more likely than not". In other news, the OECD sees the UK outperforming its G7 rivals in 2021 and 2022 for growth, where the on track figures are 6.9% and 4.7% respectively.


Euro Despite Eurozone inflation reaching a record high 4.9% in November, Christine Lagarde announced that it looked like "a hump, and a hump eventually declines". This led the president of the ECB to assert that they were "very unlikely" to raise interest rates next year. Moreover, the new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz wasted no time in applying restrictions to the unvaccinated population in Germany, as his coalition announced culture and leisure throughout the nation will only be open to those who have been vaccinated. This seems to be following a trend as more European countries impose new sets of restrictions and lockdowns.


U.S. Dollar Last Friday, nonfarm payrolls increased by a mere 210,000 for November. In comparison to the expected 573,000 this was way off the mark, especially considering labor force participation increased to 61.8%, its highest level since March 2020. Despite this, unemployment fell sharply to 4.2%, a 0.4% percentage point decline. The Dollar reached a yearly low of 1.32140 against the Pound Sterling as strength in the Pound wavers amid the new Omicron variant. Hawkish Fed expectations also underpinned the Dollar after they commented on how they are looking to handle the stubbornly high inflation.


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